Vaitaitis Blog

Vaitaitis family blog

Paskutinis traukinis dar laukia or starting a blog on evolution

I’ve made a promise to myself to become a writer, after a successful entrepreneurial carrier. While it remains to be seen how successful I’ll be as entrepreneur, but here I’m practicing writing. It’ll be easier for me to start writing about something I care the most, which is always have been a question of finding a most important problem and trying to find a solution.

Well, solution, as everybody who read Douglas Adams knows, is 42. But what is the question.

Here is my list.

Natural tendency of every person is to live, thrive and to try to keep living, what is written as a Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Our intellect allows us to  foresee an upcoming danger and adapt to changing hostile environment in time.

Foreseeing and forecasting the future is essentially what we do all the time in daily lives, without noticing it.

Our best tactic is to observe successful survival strategies and to copy them. Not only people, but any living organisms do that. People do it though without trial and error, but by making mental experiments.

Ability to observe and rank different strategies and copy the best one is also imbedded into modern life. Financial markets operate on this basis.

Ability to rank any idea becomes central to forming this forecasting strategy.

So I would consider this question as the most important one: how do you evaluate survival strategies, and tell a good one from a bad one.

I’ve started writing this almost a year ago, and I’m happy to say that I’ve arrived at the solution. The solution to forecasting and evaluating survival strategies is generating random solutions and observing which one of them is going to succeed. This is in essence darwinian evolution.

The darwinian evolution will be the subject of my epistolary career.

Let’s consider the following open questions:

1) What are the most important variables that describe evolution of species? What is the relationship between those variables. In simpler terms, what is an equation of evolution.

For example we know several variables used in existing papers related to evolution of viruses: rate of mutation, rate of procreation, rate of death.

2) How does species regulate it’s probability to survive? Is there a relationship between the rate of mutation and the rate of procreation? What is the most optimal relationship?

Mutate too fast and it increases the probability of adverse mutation (cancer), mutate too slow and it won’t keep up with adverse environment changes.

3) What is asymptotical survival strategy to distribute mutation among population?

A possible answer to consider: XY and XX chromosomes. Most of the experimental mutations are applied in males, XY chromosome.

4) How does evolution phenomenon is related to second law of thermodynamics, SLT.

More thoughts on this. The typical creationist argument that evolution violates SLT is simply not true. The contra explanation is that SLT is applied to a closed system and in the open system evolution creates more chaos. Think of how much heat and waste is produced by living organisms, most obvious example is climate change and warming of oceans. This explanation however falls short to explain what is the mechanism of evolution occurring, it just postulates that it does not violate SLT.

In the next blog we will attempt to answer all 4 questions, but most of all to construct a mechanism that ties it all together.


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